作　　者： ;

机构地区： 湖南农业大学经济学院

出　　处： 《湖南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》 2013年第2期6-9,共4页

摘　　要： 基于湖南省1978—2010年的粮食产量和受灾面积数据,利用回归分析和Logistic模型分析表明:在技术因素、社会因素和自然因素中,自然灾害对湖南主要粮食作物稻谷、小麦、玉米单产的影响最大,分别为49.28%、59.77%、48.69%。进一步通过灰色关联分析主要自然灾害对稻谷、小麦、玉米的影响表明:同一粮食作物单产与不同类型主要自然灾害的关联序在趋势上相似、差异较小,与水灾关联度最大,与旱灾关联度最小;不同粮食作物生产的抗灾能力差别较大,玉米生产的抗灾能力要小于水稻和小麦;极端天气对粮食生产影响显著。 Based on the statistics of grain production and disaster area from 1978-2010 in Hunan province,this paper analyzes the data by using Regression Analysis and Logistic Model.The results indicate that： Nature disaster has been the most serious factor which affects main grain yield per unit area among technical factors,social factors and natural factors in the region.The effect of the natural disaster on rice production,wheat production and corn production are 49.28%,59.77% and 48.69% respectively.And then through Grey Relevance analyzes the effect of main natural disasters on rice,wheat and com.The results show that： The influence of the grain yield per unit area and incidence of different types of major natural disasters on the trend of similarity,and flood is the biggest correlation,drought is the minimal one;the anti-disaster ability of different crops has the notable difference;the anti-disaster ability of corn is weaker than that of rice and wheat;extreme weather has significant effects on grain production.

关 键 词： 自然灾害 粮食产量 灰色关联度

领　　域： [经济管理—产业经济]