作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

出　　处： 《生态经济》 2015年第5期160-165,共6页

摘　　要： 根据污染的IPAT模型,可以将污染排放密度直接分解为人口密度、人均GDP和污染排放强度三个因子,但若考虑污染及经济活动在次级区域的不均衡分布情况,污染排放密度与这些因子之间就不再是恒等关系。如污染排放与人口、经济活动同向集聚,会加剧污染对环境和社会的冲击作用,诱发不良社会事件的发生。在污染排放总量不变条件下,可以通过人口与经济活动的适度分散化及通过技术创新降低单位GDP污染强度的方法减缓污染排放对环境及社会的负面影响。 According to the IPAT model of pollution, we can disintegrate pollution density into population density, GDP per capita and emissions intensity. While considering uneven distribution of pollution and economic activities in subregion, the Identity relationship does not exist between pollution density and these factors. For instance, if pollution emissions, population and economic activities agglomerating the same direction, it will aggravate the impact of pollution on environment and society and induce adverse social events. Therefore, this article builds a relative model to perform the ridge regression analysis of cumulative average density of national industrial pollution emissions and related indicators. And it can conclude that under the same total emissions, we can mitigate the negative impact of pollution on the environment and society through moderately decentralizing population and economic activity and reduce pollution intensity of per unit of GDP by technical innovation.

关 键 词： 污染物排放 累积平均密度 岭回归

领　　域： [经济管理—国民经济]