作　　者： (张昱）; ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学

出　　处： 《国际商务（对外经济贸易大学学报）》 2010年第1期15-20,53,共7页

摘　　要： 美国次贷危机波及下世界经济发展趋缓、中国农产品缺乏竞争力等因素对我国农产品贸易平衡造成影响。本文采用月度数据,从进口角度,通过协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验分析了各因素的影响程度。结果表明,我国劳动力成本上升、国外需求下降是导致我国农产品贸易逆差上升的主要原因,出口减速、国内需求上升、人民币升值、对第一产业固定资产投资增加、出口退税政策等因素次之。解决这一问题要转变经济增长方式,增加农业基础设施投入,优化进出口结构,扩大内需,适度调整人民币币值,合理调高出口退税率。 A number of factors, such as the slowdown of world economy under the influence of sub-prime debt crisis and the lack of competitiveness of China agricultural products, affect the import and export trade of China agricultural products. This paper uses monthly data to analyze the factors and their influence on China agricultural trade deficit. The empirical methods include cointegration analysis and Granger causality test. The results show that the rising labor costs and declining demand abroad are the main reasons and export slowdown, domestic demand increase, appreciation of RMB, increased investment in fixed assets of agricultural industry and export tax rebate policies are the secondary causes for China trade deficit of agricultural products. At last, some advices are presented according to the results of above analysis.

关 键 词： 进口视角 农产品逆差 实证分析

领　　域： [经济管理—产业经济]