作　　者： (刘京军）; ; (张健）;

机构地区： 中山大学岭南学院

出　　处： 《经济研究》 2020年第8期73-88,共16页

摘　　要： 随着中国成为世界最大的贸易国,如何全面评价中国对全球经济的影响是一个极其重要但尚未解决的问题。值得注意的是以往文献主要研究中国出口冲击,忽略了中国进口的影响。本文从中国进口视角出发,以全球39个主要国家或地区的上市公司为样本考察中国进口强度对世界企业投资的影响。研究结果表明,各国家或地区对中国的出口强度越高,相应当地企业的投资水平也越高,在考虑模型内生性后上述结果仍然稳健。中国进口通过以下机制影响企业投资:出口国比较优势占优的企业会因为中国进口强度的增加提高其投资,中国进口能缓解企业的融资约束以及经济不确定性对企业投资的负向影响。本文发现,在全球价值链分工体系日渐成熟的背景下,中国的经济发展对全球经济增长的作用既体现在出口方面,也体现在进口方面。本文的研究结论为理解中国进口对世界经济发展的影响提供了微观证据,这也是理解中国坚定贸易自由化以及经济全球化合理的基础。 In the 40 years since China's reform and opening up policy began,China has made tremendous progress in international trade.China has become the largest exporter and the second-largest importer in the world.Literature on the China trade shock has largely focused on China's export shocks,but noticeably absent is research on the effects of China's imports.In this study,we examine the effects of China's imports on corporate investment around the world.Using a large sample of international firms from the Compustat Global and North America databases,we document a positive relation between China's imports and worldwide corporate investment.We find that when China imports more from a given country-industry,firms in that country-industry invest more.To establish the causality link,we use the foreign exchange rate and the import tariff as instrumental variables of China's imports.We exploit China's WTO accession as a natural experiment to conduct a difference-in-differences(DID)analysis.Our results from the IV-2SLS estimation and DID tests suggest a causal effect of China's imports on corporate investment.Next,we explore the heterogeneous effects of China's imports on corporate investment.First,we split our sample countries into developing and developed economies.We find that the effects of China's imports are larger for developing countries.Second,in terms of geographic locations,we find that the effects of China's imports are stronger in the Asia-Pacific region than in the Americas.Third,we consider a time-series variation of the effect of China's imports.We find that our results are driven by China's post-WTO period.We further explore the supply-chain spillover effects of China's imports.Instead of focusing on China's imports from the sample firms'own industries,we investigate the effects of China's imports from the firms'downstream and upstream industries.Our results suggest that China's imports from the downstream(upstream)industries lead to higher(lower)corporate investment in the upstream(downstream)industries.Final

关 键 词： 全球经济 公司投资 中国进口

领　　域： [经济管理—企业管理] [经济管理—国民经济]