作　　者： (杨辰）; (马建）; ;

机构地区： 香港城市大学

出　　处： 《情报杂志》 2022年第10期82-88,共7页

摘　　要： [研究目的]技术机会分析对于国家获取未来的技术竞争优势具有重大战略意义。为了保证国家未来的技术竞争优势,各级基金评审需要从诸多技术中选取符合国家未来需求的新兴技术进行资助。当前技术机会分析的策略主要基于技术驱动及市场驱动,但两种策略分别存在缺乏需求预测导向及忽略前沿技术机会的问题,不利于各级基金评审做出有效的决策。[研究方法]基于此,提出了需求和技术联合驱动策略,结合专家法及隐含狄利克雷分布去挖掘前沿政策文本及海量专利信息以更精准及有效地识别技术机会。[研究结论]最后,对区块链技术进行案例研究,将识别的结果和国家自然科学基金委资助的区块链基金项目数据进行对比,成功验证了方法的有效性。 [Research purpose]Technology opportunity analysis(TOA)is of great strategic significance for a country to obtain future technological competitive advantage.In order to ensure China's future technological competitive advantage,fund reviewers at all levels need to select emerging technologies that meet the country's future needs from many technologies for funding.At present,the strategy of TOA is mainly based on technology-driven and market-driven,but the two strategies lack demand prediction guidance and ignore emerging technology opportunities,which is not conducive to effective decision-making of fund reviewers at all levels.[Research method]Therefore,this paper proposes a demand-and-technology-driven strategy,which combines expert method and Latent Dirichlet Allocation to mine cutting-edge policy texts and massive patent information,so as to identify technology opportunities more accurately and effectively.[Research conclusion]Finally,a case study of blockchain technology is carried out,and the results are compared with the data of blockchain fund projects funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,and the effectiveness of the method is successfully verified.

关 键 词： 需求和技术联合驱动 技术机会分析 技术机会认别 新兴技术 专利信息 政策文本 专家知识 区块链 隐含狄利克雷分布

领　　域： [文化科学—情报学]