导　　师： 虞晓芬

学科专业： L0204

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 浙江工业大学

摘　　要： 温州市房地产业经过近20年的发展取得了令人瞩目的成就,迅速发展的房地产业已经成为温州经济的增长点和消费热点.但在市场火爆的同时,房价的持续快速上涨引起了有关政府部门和学术界的强烈关注,房产市场持续高位运行的背后意味着风险的积聚.由此,关于温州房地产市场运行的健康性、是否存在房地产泡沫、房价是否偏高成为了热点话题,该文就此展开研究.论文首先从房地产相关理论与市场分析方法入手,对温州房地产市场的发展做了历史回顾,然后从各个层面分析了温州房地产市场的现状,在此基础上研究了房价快速上升的成因.为了能准确的判断市场,论文对影响温州房地产需求因素做了关联度分析,并进行了需求预测;运用了两种方法对温州市房价的泡沫程度进行了度量,并对泡沫程度进行了解释和分析.最后文章详细地分析了温州房地产市场的潜在风险,从温州房地产业存在的问题出发,提出了如何有效化解和防范房地产风险的手段与政策措施.此项研究对促进温州市房地产业与社会经济协调发展,保持温州经济持续健康发展有重要意义. After 20 years development, the real estate industry of Wenzhou has achieved compelling success. The rapidly developing real estate industry of Wenzhou has been a new impetus of regional economy and the focus of consumption. With the sustaining boom of housing market, the housing price which kept on rising arouse the intense attention of the government and academia, By the soar of housing price, it means the accumulation of the risk. So about the problems whether the housing market is healthy, whether bubbles really exist, whether housing price is high has been the focus of the argument. Starting from the theory of real estate and the analysis method of real estate , this paper reviews the history of Wenzhou real estate market, then analyze the actuality of the real estate of Wenzhou from each side. On the basis of this, we explain the reason of the rising of the housing price. In order to exactly judge the market, this paper studies the relating factors that have the prominence influence on the demand of real estate markets and forecast the demand.we estimate the bubble through two different methods before we explain and analyze the bubble degrees. Thus we indicate that the current levels of price bubble are normal in Whenzhou. Finally, This paper particularly analyses the potential risk of housing market. This paper puts forward some corresponding solutions to prevent the risk on the base of the problems that exist in the market.

关 键 词： 房地产市场 温州 泡沫 风险防范

领　　域： [经济管理—国民经济]