作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广州大学

出　　处： 《产业组织评论》 2020年第3期-,共24页

摘　　要： 本研究通过对全球17个主要大国钢铁产业数据的分析,探究各国钢铁生产与使用模式的长期趋势,尤其考察了各国钢铁生产与使用模式的异质性问题。研究发现,一国的钢铁生产、表观消费与真实使用都存在倒"U"型曲线走势,且钢铁生产量会早于钢铁消费量达到倒"U"型曲线的拐点,而表观消费量又先于真实使用量达到相应的拐点。一国经济发展水平、工业化程度与城镇化进程是决定其钢铁生产与使用的根本性因素,国际贸易对其钢铁生产与使用模式也有重要影响;各国经济发展水平、工业化水平与城镇化水平的差异决定了其钢铁生产模式的异质性,各国产业结构与贸易模式的异质性决定了其钢铁使用模式的异质性。基于经济发展、工业化与城镇化等诸方面因素的考虑,可以得出中国钢铁消费水平尚未达到峰值的结论;随着中国人均收入水平的增长、工业化进程的深化以及城镇化率的提高,中国人均钢铁生产与使用量仍有望继续增长。 This study explores the long-term trends of steel production and use patterns in various countries, especially the heterogeneity of steel production and use patterns in different countries, by analyzing the data of 17 major countries in the world. The study found that there is inverted "U" shaped curve for steel production, apparent consumption and real use in a country. The inflection point of steel production will be earlier than the corresponding inflection point of steel apparent consumption, which is earlier than the real use of steel. The level of economic development, the degree of industrialization and the process of urbanization of a country are the fundamental factors determining its iron and steel production and use. International trade also has an important impact on its iron and steel production and use patterns. The non-synchronization of economic development, industrialization and urbanization determines the heterogeneity of patterns of steel production. The heterogeneity of industrial structure and trade patterns in different countries determines the heterogeneity of its steel use patterns. Based on the factors of economic development, industrialization and urbanization, it can be concluded that China's steel consumption has not yet reached the peak. With the improvement of per capita income, the deepening of China's industrialization process and the improvement of urbanization, per capita steel production and use is still expected to grow in China.

关 键 词： 钢铁产业统计指标体系 倒 型曲线 跨国异质性 间接钢铁贸易

领　　域： [经济管理—产业经济]