作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 湖南科技大学商学院

出　　处： 《南开经济研究》 2017年第2期3-22,共20页

摘　　要： 为考察城镇化影响房地产价格的程度及空间相关特征,本文基于中国2000—2012年间的地级市样本数据,建立房地产价格的动态空间杜宾模型,测度城镇化的直接效应和间接效应,并探讨空间效应的差异性。实证结果表明:(1)近十年,快速城镇化是推动房地产价格上涨的一个重要因素,其影响力度与房屋供给、房地产开发投资相近。(2)城镇化进程的加快,不但会导致当地房地产价格的上涨(直接效应),也会导致相关地区房地产价格的上涨(间接效应),但这种效应往往被忽视。(3)就空间距离而言,城镇化的直接效应和间接效应均随着空间相关距离的增大而减弱;就地理区位而言,城镇化的直接效应在东北地区最强,城镇化的间接效应在东部地区最强;就城市规模而言,城镇化的直接效应在小城市更大,城镇化的间接效应在大城市更显著。 In order to examine rapid urbanization impact on real estate prices and space-related characteristics, based on prefecture-level city in China between 2000-2012 sample data, we established a dynamic spatial Durbin model to measure the direct and indirect effects, and to explore the spatial effect of differences. The results show that： （1）In recent ten years, rapid urbanization is an important factor in real estate prices, its influence is similar to housing supply and real estate investment. （2） The urbanization of a region, not only will lead to local real estate prices rise （direct effect）, but also lead to rising prices of related areas （indirect effect）. But the indirect effects are often overlooked. （3）The space effect（direct effect, indirect effect, total effect） of real estate prices and urbanization will be decreased as the interval distance between cities; In the east, the indirect effect of urbanization is the greatest; The effect of urbanization rate on real estate prices is greater in small cities, the impact of urbanization on the relevant me- tropolis is more significant.

关 键 词： 房地产价格 城镇化 直接效应 间接效应 动态空间杜宾模型

领　　域： [经济管理—国民经济]