作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东省社会科学院

出　　处： 《南方经济》 2015年第11期53-69,共17页

摘　　要： 货币政策是我国宏观调控体系的重要组成部分,目前尚没有研究从民间借贷角度探讨其作用和影响。本文基于P2P网贷数据考察货币政策在民间借贷市场的有效性,利用2014年5月至2015年5月285家P2P平台的日交易数据,本文分析期间六次货币政策调整对于P2P网贷成交量和平均利率的影响。为确保结论稳健,本文同时使用面板数据和断点回归设计两种计量方法进行估计,结果显示:(1)货币政策在P2P市场的作用有限,六次积极的货币政策调整中,能够显著地影响P2P市场利率和成交量均不超过两次;(2)利率政策和准备金率政策的影响没有规律性差异。上述结论在不同模型设定和参数选择下均稳健。针对上述现象,本文从信贷市场分割的角度探讨了其形成原因。 Monetary policy is one important part of macroscopic adjustment and control system. However, there is little research exploring its influences on informal finance. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of monetary policy in informal lending market using P2 P lending data. With daily transaction data of 285 P2 P platforms from May 2014 to May 2015 , we study the impacts on P2 P daily turnovers and average interest rates of all six monetary policy adjustments during this period, including three times reduction of deposit reserve ratio and three times reduction of prime interest rate. Both panel data model and regression discontinuity design are employed for policy evaluation. The results show that monetary policy has limited influence on P2 P lending. Less than two of six policy adjustments can statistically reduce P2 P interest rate or increase turnover irrespective of the adjustment range. Besides, we also find there is no regular difference between influences of deposit reserve ratio and prime interest rate. These results are robust to alternative model specification and parameters selection. Lastly a theoretical explanation is offered for the empirical findings from the angle of credit market segmentation.

关 键 词： 货币政策 民间信贷 信贷市场分割

领　　域： [社会学—统计学]