作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

出　　处： 《政治学研究》 2016年第2期80-94,共15页

摘　　要： 对中国284个城市2003～2012年数据的实证分析显示，政治周期（党代会）、五年规划与环境污染具有显著关联，表现为工业二氧化硫排放呈现周期性。即省级党代会前一年与当年，工业二氧化硫排放量达到高峰，党代会之后的第三、第四年，工业二氧化硫排放量较低；五年规划的第一与第五年，工业二氧化硫排放量达到高峰，第三、第四年，工业二氧化硫排放量较低。党代会使得不同年份地方官员的晋升激励动力不同，五年规划也存在类似的激励周期，表现出投资周期进而导致环境污染的周期性。党代会、五年规划的交互效应使得环境污染的周期性更明显。环境污染的周期性与地方政府的考核机制、地方政府经济与社会发展规划不够合理有关。应调整考核与激励机制，提高地方政府环境污染的成本和环境保护的收益；增强地方政府“五年规划”中经济发展与环境保护之间的协调性，在目标考核中增加协调性衡量指标，促进经济、社会与环境可持续发展。 Based on empirical analysis of a panel data set for 284 cities from 2003 to 2012,the paper finds that political cycle( Communist Party Congress,CPR) and Five-Year Plan( FYP) both have significant effects on environmental pollution,leading to periodic changes in industrial sulfur dioxide emissions. In the previous year before the provincial CPR and the year of the CPR,the industrial sulfur dioxide emissions reach the highest point,but it lowered in the third and fourth years after the CPR. In the first and fifth year of the FYP,the industrial sulfur dioxide emissions reach the highest point,but it lowered in the third and fourth year of the FYP. Due to CPR,local officials have different promotion incentives at different time and the FYP also has similar incentive cycle,which shows that investment cycle leads to periodic changes of environmental pollution. The interaction between CPR and FYP makes the cycle of environmental pollution more obvious. Some cities hold the CPR at the first year of the FYP. These cities discharge10 million tons more industrial sulfur dioxide at the year of the CPR compared to the base period. There are some important policy enlightenments: the period of environmental pollution is related to the irrational appraisal mechanism and the economic and social development plan of local government. The cost of environmental pollution and the benefits of environmental protection both should be increased for the local officials. And the coordination between economic development and environmental protection should be strengthened in the FYP of local government. In the evaluation results,the measurable indicator of coordination should be increased to promote the sustainable development of economy,society and environment.

关 键 词： 环境污染 环境政策 政治周期 五年规划 工业二氧化硫

分 类 号： [F426.61]

领　　域： []