作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

出　　处： 《中国人口资源与环境》 2016年第2期1-9,共9页

摘　　要： 由于我国地区间资源禀赋和经济发展水平存在差异,在碳排放总量一定的前提下,充分考虑地域间的差异以选取合理的地区间分配方式对实现2016年全国统一碳市场的建立至关重要。本文试图通过零和DEA模型寻求一种新的碳排放权分配方式,在考虑地区间人口和经济差异的基础上实现满足DEA的效率性水平。本文首先通过零和DEA模型对历史排放分配法的效率性水平进行评估,由于历史排放分配法主要受能源消费模式和产业结构决定,不能全面的反映不同地区间的发展和资源禀赋等情况,导致减排成本分配的不合理,从而缺乏效率性;然后根据初次零和DEA的评估结果,通过多次迭代法进行投影,计算出效率性最大化的地区分配方案,从最终的分配结果来看,江苏、山东和广东三省的综合产出因素值高于其他省市地区,最终的CO2排放权分配数量也最多,说明在零和DEA方法下,各地区排放权的分配数量与该地区的经济总量和人口数量成正比;最后,在影响CO2排放的因素中,能源强度和经济发展水平影响最为明显。这说明从短期看,受经济发展要求和要素禀赋的限制,我国碳排放量的绝对值在未来一定时期内仍将处于上升阶段。 As regional resources endowment and economic development level of China are different,it is of great significance on how to treat the regional differences and select appropriate and reasonable allocation methods of allowance between regions under the condition of a constrained amount of carbon emissions. Considering the limitations of the existing allocation method,as to the grandfathering’s lack of cost effectiveness and efficiency and the auction rules’ lack of policy feasibility,this paper seeks a new way of carbon emission allowance allocation with the using of the ZSG-DEA（ Zero Sum Gains DEA） model which considers the population and economic differences between regions. This paper firstly evaluates the efficiency levels of historical distribution method with the ZSG-DEA model and finds out that the average efficiency levels are the modest. Secondly,according to the initial results,the paper calculates the efficiency-maximized distribution plan through the multi-iterative method. Lastly the paper uses econometric model to analyze the influence factors of CO2 emission and finds out that the level of economic development is the main factor that affects the quantity of CO2 emissions. The decline in carbon intensity can be accomplished by continuously improving the efficiency of energy use and manufacturing process as well as strengthening the environmental regulation on foreign capital enterprise.

关 键 词： 分配效率 碳排放配额 碳交易市场

分 类 号： [F328]

领　　域： []