作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广州大学

出　　处： 《国际贸易问题》 2016年第6期155-166,共12页

摘　　要： 随着中国经济周期的转换,汇率＂急跌缓升＂成为了人民币的＂新常态＂。面对这种宏观环境的变化,企业的外贸订单、进口原材料价格等进一步受到冲击,企业的生存模式也会发生变化。本文整合企业层面的微观数据与汇率波动的宏观数据,基于企业异质性视角,研究上一经济周期中,人民币汇率＂缓升＂对企业生存与经营行为的作用机制,从而对未来人民币＂新常态＂与企业行为的微观机制进行研究。结果表明：人民币汇率＂缓升＂对不同类型企业＂生存能力＂的冲击存在显著差异;汇率＂缓升＂对沿海地区企业、民营企业、资本和技术密集型企业、大型企业生存模式的冲击较小;对内陆企业、国有企业、劳动和资源密集型企业、中小型企业生存模式的冲击较大。 The ＂steep dropping and slow rising＂ exchange rate becomes a＂new normal＂for RMB as China＇s economic cycle turns. Confronted with such macro- environmental change, firms＇ orders and prices of importing raw materials both suffer greatly. So, firms＇ existing models also transform. This paper integrates the firm- specific micro- data and the exchange rate macro- data, based on the perspective of firm heterogeneity, to study the action mechanism of how do firms react to the slow rising RMB exchange rate during last economic cycle,hereby to analyze a ＂new normal＂ for RMB and micro- mechanism of firms＇ behavior in the future. Our empirical analysis finds that： 1） the slow rising RMB exchange rate does bring different and significant shocks to firms＇ existing capacity; 2） Firms located in coastal areas, firms owned by private sectors, capital and technology intensive firms and big size firms are all less affected by slow rising RMB exchange rate; 3） Inland firms, state-owned firms, labor and resource intensive firms, middle and small size firms are all shocked greatly.

关 键 词： 人民币汇率 “急跌缓升” “新常态” 生存能力 企业异质性

分 类 号： [F407.472]

领　　域： []