作　　者： ;

机构地区： 中山大学

出　　处： 《政治学研究》 2018年第4期103-116,128,共15页

摘　　要： 试点是中国政策创新与制度建设的一个重要机制。试点有助于在可控范围内降低政策创新和制度变迁的风险,但对试点效果的评估容易受到选择性偏差和霍桑效应的影响。社会实验技术的运用为我们提供了一种改善的可能性,它比自然实验设计和统计控制分析方法对观察数据的处理更能有效地减少各类偏误的影响。本文在讨论社会科学偏误类型和控制机制的基础上,总结了社会实验法的分类、设计原则、实施程序及其在社会科学中的应用。社会实验可以对偶然因素、偏误和混淆因素实现有效控制,为政策评估和因果推理提供可靠依据。当然,社会实验在适用范围和实施方面也面临很多限制和挑战。从实践层面看,试点机制如果能吸收社会实验法的相关要素,可以将政策创新与制度建设建立在更为坚实的基础之上。 Pilot is an important mechanism for China s policy innovation and institutional building.However,the evaluation of the pilot effects,or the identification of its causal relationship,can be affected by selection bias and the Hawthorne s effect.The application of social experiments provides an opportunity for improving the pilot effect,and it is more effective to reduce the impact of various types of biases than the quasi-experimental design and statistical control analysis methods.The article summarizes the classification,design principles,implementation procedures,and its applications in social sciences of the social experiment.Social experiments can control chances,biases and confounding factors effectively,and provide a reliable basis for policy evaluation and causal inference.Still,social experiments are limited and challenged in terms of scope of application and implementation.By incorporating experiment elements into the pilot mechanism can provide a more solid foundation for policy innovation and institution building.

关 键 词： 随机控制实验 因果关系 政策评估 偏差 统计控制

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