作　　者： (）;

机构地区： 广东财经大学金融学院

出　　处： 《世界经济研究》 2019年第9期32-45,118,134,共16页

摘　　要： 文章在理论探讨实际汇率对宏观经济的影响机制基础上,基于TVP-SV-VAR模型实证检验人民币实际汇率冲击对中国产出、通胀、就业与实际工资的动态影响效应。研究认为:(1)实际汇率在总需求渠道与总供给渠道的共同作用下对产出、物价、就业与实际工资产生不确定性的影响,当本国出口企业远多于进口企业,且居民对本币的心里预期较强时,实际汇率上升会导致产出、物价水平、就业和实际工资下降。(2)人民币升值短期内会抑制经济增长,降低物价水平,不利于就业的提升和实际工资的增长,但中长期内几乎没有影响,随着人民币汇率改革,人民币升值对中国产出增长、物价水平与实际工资呈现出越来越显著的负向冲击。(3)相比于有管理的浮动汇率制度经济繁荣时期和高通胀环境下,人民币实际汇率在固定汇率制度下、经济低迷时期与低通胀环境对产出增长、实际工资和就业的抑制效应更为显著,但对物价水平的传递效应表现出较强的趋同性。 Based on the theoretical discussion on the impact mechanism of real exchange rate on macroeconomics,this paper empirically tests the dynamic impact of RMB real exchange rate shock on China’s output,inflation,employment and real wages based on the TVP-SV-VAR model.The results show that:(1)There is impact of the real exchange rate on the output,price,employment and real wages under the combined effect of the total demand channel and the total supply channel,when the domestic export enterprises are far more than the import enterprises;and when the expectations of the local currency are strong,the rise in the real exchange rate will lead to the decline in output,price levels,employment and real wages.(2)The appreciation of the RMB will restrain economic growth and lower the price level in the short term,which is not conducive to the improvement of employment and the increase of real wages.However,there is almost no impact in the medium and long term.With the reform of the RMB exchange rate,the appreciation of the RMB will increase output in China.Prices levels and real wages show an increasingly significant negative impact.(3)Compared with the managed floating exchange rate system with economic boom period and high inflation environment,the real exchange rate of RMB under the fixed exchange rate system with the economic downturn and the low inflation environment has an inhibitory effect on output growth,real wages and employment.More significantly,the transmission effect on the price level shows a strong convergence.

关 键 词： 人民币实际汇率 宏观经济效应 模型 模型

领　　域： []