作　　者： ; ; ;

机构地区： 广州地理研究所

出　　处： 《水电能源科学》 2019年第5期23-25,44,共4页

摘　　要： 针对华南强降雨地区洪水灾害问题,考虑到灾害防治及设计洪水工程需求,以曹江流域为例,在分析流域洪水特性基础上,采用P-Ⅲ型分布和广义极值分布两种概率分布方法,并对洪水分布函数的不同参数估计方法进行对比。结果表明,广义极值分布参数估计法极大似然估计法估算结果更符合实际情况,为曹江流域及相同特性中小流域设计洪水制定提供参考依据。 Aiming at flooding problem of the heavy rainfall in South China, considering the disaster prevention and control and the design flood engineering requirements, taking Caojiang river basin as an example, based on the analysis of basin flood characteristics, two methods of probability distribution (Pearson type Ⅲ distribution and generalized extreme value distribution ) were used to compare different parameter estimation methods for flood distribution function. The results show that the estimation results by the generalized extremum distribution parameter estimation method and the maximum likelihood estimation method are more in line with the actual situation, which provides a reference for the design flood formulation of Caojiang river basin and small and medium-sized basins with the same characteristics.

关 键 词： 型分布 广义极值分布 设计洪水 参数估计方法 重现期 拟合优度检验

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