作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学

出　　处： 《国际经贸探索》 2018年第7期49-63,共15页

摘　　要： 文章在对中国与海合会成员国双边贸易往来进行分析的基础上,利用一般均衡模型就卡塔尔外交危机对中国和海合会自贸区谈判可能产生的潜在影响进行了预测和分析。在不同的方案和情形设置中模拟结果均显示:中国和海合会的GDP、福利水平、居民收入会得到提升,贸易条件会得到改善,进出口也会得到明显提高,行业具有很大的发展潜力和提升空间。如果海合会成员国将卡塔尔排除在自贸区谈判之外,其经济效应的相对水平会出现明显下降。 Based on the analysis of bilateral trade exchanges between China and GCC countries, this paper applies the CGE model to predict and analyze the potential impacts of Qatar＇ s diplomatic rift on the negotiation between China and GCC on free trade area （ FTA）. All simulation results in different solutions and scenario settings show that the GDP and welfare level of China and GCC will be promoted; the trade conditions will be improved; the import and export will also increase significantly and the industry has huge potential and room for development and upgrading. If GCC members exclude Qatar from the negotiation on FTA, their relative level of economic effects will decline significantly.

关 键 词： 外交危机 自贸区谈判 一般均衡模型 数据库

领　　域： []