作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

出　　处： 《热带气象学报》 2019年第5期604-613,共10页

摘　　要： 台风是对港口威胁最大、影响最广而评估难度最高的自然灾害之一,港口台风灾损评估对于国际大港密布的中国尤其重要。利用1997—2015年的台风气象观测资料及广州市南沙港区资产分布统计数据,采用国际减灾战略评估模型,重点测算致灾因子危险性和承灾体脆弱性,评估不同重现期下南沙港区台风灾害风险的分布特征和经济灾损状况。评估结果显示,南沙港区的台风风险水平呈现出空间非均衡性,二、三期工程风险水平较一期工程更高;当遇重现期50 a以下台风时,港区经济灾损较小,一旦超过100 a一遇等级,则可形成巨灾;港区不同部位的风险水平差异明显,其中供油、通信、空箱、给水、消防的风险水平偏高;在不考虑易损性前提下,500 a一遇台风可导致经济灾损达1.404亿美元。基于PGIS法将本地风险知识应用到GIS软件中,开展多种情景下南沙港区台风灾害风险评估的方法,可移植到其他港口的各类气象灾害损失研究。 Typhoon is one of the most threatening and most influential natural disasters in ports,and its risk assessment is also very difficult.The assessment of typhoon damage in ports is especially important for China,which boasts a plethora of international ports.Based on the International Strategy Assessment model,the risk analysis of typhoon disaster in Nansha port area under different probabilities is carried out by using typhoon meteorological observation data from 1997—2015.It focuses on the analysis of the risk of typhoon hazard factors,the vulnerability of the disaster tolerant body,the probability risk distribution characteristics and the disaster economic loss.The results are as follows.The typhoon risk level in Nansha port area shows spatial imbalance.When encountering a typhoon with a probability of 50 a or less,the economic loss of the port area is small;however,once it exceeds the probability of 100 a,it is easy to cause catastrophe.The risk level of different parts has obvious differences,and some are generally high,such as oil supply facilities,communication facilities,empty containers,water supply facilities,and fire protection facilities.Without considering the vulnerability,a 500 a typhoon can cause an economic loss of$140.4 million.This research applies local risk knowledge to GIS software to evaluate the typhoon disaster risk in Nansha port area under various scenarios,which can provide reference for related work in other port areas.

关 键 词： 应用气象学 台风 风险评估 经济灾损 港口

分 类 号： [P444]

领　　域： []