作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

出　　处： 《财贸经济》 2016年第7期50-63,共14页

摘　　要： 财政扩张的利弊，一直是经济学界的讨论热点。现有的国内研究往往聚焦于对投资与消费等内生变量的讨论，而忽视了财政扩张对宏观模型外生参数——规模报酬参数的政策效应。同时，中国式财政政策很可能具有独特的传导路径一——金融与保险、房地产及批发零售业等支柱型服务业受到的影响尤为严重。为此，本文使用上市公司的微观数据，基于超越对数成本函数模型，对主要服务业的规模报酬参数进行测度。结果发现，金融与保险、房地产、批发零售业出现了显著的规模报酬递减现象，即规模不经济；而其他服务业则明显处于规模经济的状态。进一步的实证检验表明，财政扩张与金融与保险、房地产、批发零售业乃至所有服务业的规模报酬递减，均存在统计意义上的因果关系。因此，财政扩张对服务业规模报酬存在一定的“挤出”效应。中国式财政政策与众不同，故而，从规模报酬及产业经济的维度审视中国式财政扩张的传导机制很有必要，可为今后的宏观调控提供崭新的分析思路与经验素材。 It is a hot topic in economic circles to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of fiscal expansion. However, the existed domestic research mostly focuses on the discussion of the endogenous variables of investment and consumption, and ignores the policy effect of the fiscal expansion on the exogenous parameter （the scale return parameter）of the macro model. At the same time, China＇s fiscal policy may walk towards a unique conduction path, that is, the pillar of the service industries, such as finance and insurance, real estate and retail industries, bear the brunt. Therefore, this paper applies the micro data of listed companies and measures the scale return parameter of the primary service industries basing on the transtog cost function The results show that： the return scale of those industries mentioned above decline significantly, referring to the diseconomies of scale, while other service industries run in the opposite way. Further empirical tests suggest that there is a causal relationship in the sense of statistic. Thus, the fiscal expansion imposes crowding-out effect on the service industries＇ scale return. The above empirical evidence shows that the Chinese fiscal policy is out of ordinary, so it＇s necessary to scrutinize the transmission mechanism of fiscal expansion from the return of scale and industrial economy, which also provide a new analytical ideas and experience for the future relevant policies.

关 键 词： 财政政策 服务业 规模报酬 超越对数成本函数模型 “挤出”效应

分 类 号： [F062.9 F812]

领　　域： [] []