作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

出　　处： 《中国人口科学》 2015年第5期45-57,共13页

摘　　要： 文章将1999年的高校扩招视为一次公共政策实验，基于准实验与双重差分法的研究框架，利用1998～2011年29个内地省份和香港、台湾地区的面板数据，以DEA—Tobit计量模型就高校扩招政策对技术创新效率的影响进行实证检验。结果发现，高校扩招对内地省份的创新总产出有正向作用，但同时对效率产生了显著的负面冲击，扩招后的地区创新效率会因政策冲击下降约35．7％。从持续影响看，扩招后培养的“新大学生”在高等教育人口中占比越高，该地区研发人员的平均创新效率就越低。虽然导致高等教育投入激增的高校扩招政策存在刺激创新总产出的积极效应，但对技术创新效率产生了一定的负面作用，高校扩招似乎未能同时提升中国技术创新的质与量。因此，高校扩招政策的综合效应难以用“好”或“坏”进行评价。 Taking China's college enrolment expansion in 1999 as a public policy experiment,and based on the framework of quasi experiment and difference-in-differences method,this paper uses the provincial panel data of mainland's 29 provinces.Taiwan and Hong Kong during 1998-2011,combined with DEA-Tobit model to make an empirical test on the influence of the enrolment expansion policy on the efficiency of technological innovation.The result finds that the enrolment expansion has a positive effect on the total innovation of China's mainland provinces but a significant negative impact on the innovation efficiency at the same time.The innovation efficiency decreases by about 35.7%after expansion.In terms of continued effects,the higher the proportion of the 'new college students' trained under the enrolment expansion policy is,the lower the average innovation efficiency is.Although the positive effect of stimulating innovation total output has been produced,it has some negative effect on the efficiency of technological innovation.The enrolment expansion policy seems to have failed to improve the quality and quantity of the technological innovation in China.Thus,its comprehensive effect cannot be simply evaluated by saying 'good or bad'.

关 键 词： 高校扩招 创新 DEA—Tobit模型 双重差分法

分 类 号： [F403.6]

领　　域： []