作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

出　　处： 《管理科学学报》 2011年第2期 61-70,共10页

摘　　要： 尝试研究近年来我国房地产价格不断剧烈波动背后的市场机制．通过构建包含投资效用、二手市场、预期、政策冲击等因素的动态模型，揭示动态的房地产市场机制．研究结果表明，短视预期效应会加剧房价波动，而理性预期却是房价的自动调节器．一旦房地产市场中短视预期效应大于理性预期效应，房价暴涨或暴跌的“棘轮效应”则无法在短期内逆转．这可能是我国近年房价剧烈波动的根本原因之一． House prices in China recently flucate acutely and this paper focuses on real estate market mechanism by establishing models to explain this phenomena. The model includes invest-utility, second-hand market, rational expectation, unrational expectation and policy impulse. This model outlines a dynamic real estate market＇ s mechanism. We argue that unrational expectation magnifies fluctuations of house prices. Conversely, rational expectation is the self-regulator of the real estate price. When market＇ s unrational expectation dominates rational expectation, the ratchet wheel of the price fluctuating can not stop in a short term. This may be one of the essential reason for Chinese real estate price keep fluctuating acutely.

关 键 词： 房地产 二手市场 预期 市场机制

分 类 号： [F293.3]

领　　域： []