作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学

出　　处： 《国际商务:对外经济贸易大学学报》 2019年第2期61-73,共13页

摘　　要： 基于联合国服务贸易数据库并结合生存分析方法,实证考察了2001~2015年中国服务贸易出口联系的生存状况及其决定因素。测算研究发现:(1)中国服务贸易出口的生存持续期较短,仅占整个观测期的1/3左右;从生存概率来看,中国服务贸易出口的生存状况与货物贸易相比缺乏稳定性,其既不存在负时间依赖特征,也不存在生存时间门槛,在观测期内一直处于持续衰减状态。(2)中国不同服务行业的出口生存状况存在一定的差异,传统服务业的出口生存持续期与生存率基本优于新兴服务业。(3)从跨国比较来看,中国服务贸易出口整体的生存状况基本介于欧美发达国家与亚洲国家之间。实证研究表明,首次出口额、出口市场和出口产品多元化、出口经验等因素对中国的服务贸易出口联系的生存状况均存在显著的影响。 Based on the United Nations Service Trade Database and by the survival analysis method,this paper systematically examines the survival conditions of China’s foreign trade in services and the determinants from 2001 to 2015.The results show that:(1)China’s service trade exports have a short duration of survival,accounting for only about one-third of the sample period.From the perspective of survival probability,the survival of China’s service trade exports is not stable compared with trade in goods,which has neither negative time-dependent features nor survival thresholds,and it has been in a state of continuous decay during the observation period.(2)Different service industries differ in the export survival conditions in China,and the export service duration and survival rate of traditional service industries are basically better than those of emerging service industries.(3)In terms of cross-country comparison,the overall survival of China’s service trade exports is better than that of some Asian countries,but inferior to some developed countries in Europe and America.Besides,the empirical studies show that,determinants such as the first export volume,export market,export product diversification,and export experience have significant impacts on the survival of China’s service trade export linkages.

关 键 词： 服务贸易 出口持续期 跨国比较 决定因素

分 类 号： [F746.18]

领　　域： []