作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学

出　　处： 《经济评论》 2018年第2期74-88,共15页

摘　　要： 既有文献以探讨国家声誉的政治效应居多,而鲜有涉足其经济效应者。本文首先利用世界民意调查报告匹配得到了一个介于2005-2013年间的国家对样本数据,据此构造了正面、中性以及负面三个国家声誉评价指标,并将来源国的出口贸易流量分解为集约边际与扩展边际两部分,在此基础上实证考察了国家声誉对出口二元边际的影响。研究表明：（1）良好的国家声誉即目的国对来源国的正面评价对来源国的出口扩展边际具有显著的促进作用,反之则对来源国的出口扩展边际存在负面影响;（2）较之于出口扩展边际,国家声誉对来源国的出口集约边际的影响效应较为微弱或不显著;（3）中性评价对来源国的出口二元边际的影响效应不明确。上述研究发现在划分子样本回归以及控制贸易零值与内生性问题等条件下仍然成立。本文从国家声誉的角度解构了贸易创造的潜在动力机制,其有助于深化对国家声誉的贸易效应的认识,同时也为如何通过强化国家（地区）的软实力构建以促进新型国际贸易比较优势的形成这一议题提供了相应的思路启迪。 While extant literatures on national reputation focusing more on its political effects, few attaches attention to its economic effects. Based on the country-pair dataset extracted from annual World Opinion Poll over the period 2005-2013, this paper measures country reputation by three indicators-positive, neutral and negative response ratio, and then empirically investigates the impact of country reputation on international trade and intensive margin and extensive margin. The result shows that： good country reputation significantly promotes extensive margin of original countries and vice versa, while the impact of country reputation on intensive margin of original countries doesn＇t appear as significant as that on extensive margin. Neutral evaluation has ambiguous effect on original countries＇ export margins. The findings above are still robust in sub- sample regression, also after controlling for the issues of zero trade and endogeneity. This paper decomposes the potential mechanism of trade creation from the perspective of country reputation, which not only is helpful in intensifying our knowledge in the trade effect of country reputation, but also sheds light on how to strengthen national soft power so as to promote the formation of new comparative advantage in international trade and thus boost the sustainable and healthy development of foreign trade.

关 键 词： 国家声誉 对外贸易 集约边际 扩展边际 扩展引力模型

分 类 号： [F832.3]

领　　域： []