作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南农业大学

出　　处： 《价格理论与实践》 2017年第5期65-68,共4页

摘　　要： 本文基于2000年1月-2017年1月中国省级面板月度数据，从我国猪肉价格波动传导的空间特征出发，采用空间杜宾模型研究我国省际猪肉价格波动的影响机制。研究发现，我国猪肉价格波动在空间上存在波动方向和幅度趋同性的特点；猪肉价格在省际之间具有正向的空间传导效应，容易引起大范围价格齐涨齐跌的“联动效应”；替代品、成本要素价格在省内对猪肉价格波动的影响显著但作用力度有限，省际间的溢出传导效应是造成猪肉价格波动空间传导的主要原因。建设空间监测预警系统，加强价格信息共享及调控政策协同力度，引导居民多元化肉类消费，加强饲料粮储备政策措施等来保障猪肉市场价格的健康稳定运行。 Based on the analysis of pork price volatilities of Chinese provincial panel monthly data in January 2000 - January 2017, and from the spatial characters of the transmission of Chinese pork price volatility, this paper studies the influencing factors and formation mechanism of inter - provincial pork price fluctuation in China by the spatial durbin model. The results found that Chinese pork price volatility has the similar characteristics in volatility direction and amplitude convergence in spatial. Pork prices in the inter-provincial have positive spatial transmission effect, some provinces prices volatilities are likely to cause a wide range of price increases ~chain effect＂; Substitutes, cost factors have a significant but limited effect on pork prices volatilities in the inner province, the spillover transmission effect between provinces is the main cause and influence mechanism of pork price volatility spatial conduction. At the end of this paper, we put forward some policy suggestions： firstly We should set up a monitoring and early warning system, strengthen the price information sharing and control policy coordination efforts. Secondly, We could improve the degree of diversification of meat market products, scattered meat price fluctuations risk. And lastly, We could build up livestock feed grain reserve mechanism and strengthen the feed grain docking and other relevant policy measures to ensure the healthy and stable operation of pork market prices.

关 键 词： 猪肉价格 价格波动 省际空间传导 空间杜宾模型

分 类 号： [F724.743]

领　　域： []