作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南农业大学

出　　处： 《农业现代化研究》 2018年第3期440-450,共11页

摘　　要： 随着畜牧业禁限养环保政策的逐步实施,环境规制成为制约中国生猪养殖的首要问题。基于波特假说的相关理论,利用2004—2015年中国省级生猪养殖面板数据,分析环境规制对生猪产业生产布局的影响,探讨其空间转移的作用机制。结果表明,生猪养殖业与环境规制强度在地域上都存在很强的空间关联性,在空间分布上呈现层次状聚集现象;生猪出栏、存栏和养殖场密度与环境规制强度之间均存在显著的倒N型非线性关系,在环境制约下,生猪养殖呈现先下降,越过第一拐点后上升,到达第二拐点后再下降的发展趋势;上海、江苏、广东等8个省市已经越过倒N型曲线上第二拐点,生猪养殖处于向外转出阶段,河北,湖北、湖南等10个省市即将在短时间内到达第二拐点,生猪产业发展处于饱和缓慢增长阶段,贵州、广西等6个中西部省份生猪养殖处于快速增长阶段。黑龙江、内蒙古等地区现有生猪养殖水平较低,但未来养殖潜力巨大。环境规制的差异使得生猪产业从东南向西部和东北地区转移,在空间布局存在着＂南猪北移,东猪西进＂的转移趋势。因此,提出各地区应实行差异化的环境规制水平及监管政策,加强环保投入实现规模化经营以应对环境监管的冲击,密切关注生猪供给状况防止猪肉价格大涨等建议。 With the gradual implementation of the livestock restricting and banning environmental policy, environmental regulations have become the primary challenge that affects the hog breeding industry in China. Based on a panel data of Chinese provincial hog breeding from 2004 to 2015, and the relevant theories of the Porter hypothesis, this paper empirically explored the mechanism of environmental regulations on the production distribution and spatial movement of hog industry in China. Results show that the hog breeding industry and environmental regulation intensity have a strong spatial correlation and a hierarchical aggregation on its spatial distribution. In addition, there exists an ＂inverted N-shape＂ relationship between the development level of the hog breeding industry and environmental regulations： under the environmental regulations, the development level of the hog breeding industry shows a decliningincreasing-declining pattern. This paper also finds that Shanghai, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other five provinces have crossed the second inflection point on the inverted N-shape curve, where hog farming in the exiting stage has been declined. Other 10 provinces, such as Hebei, Hubei, and Hunan, will reach the second inflection point in a short time, where hog breeding industry is in a slow and saturated growth stage. While hog farming in the six central and western provinces, such as Guizhou and Guangxi, is in a period of rapid growth. The breeding levels of hog in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia are low but with a great potential growth in the future. The difference of environmental regulations makes hog breeding industry movement from the southeast to the west and the northeast with the following trends： ＂South hog northward, and east hog westward＂. In summary, this paper also provides the following policy suggestions： to implement different levels of environmental regulations and policies in different regions, to strengthen environmental protection investment to achieve large-scale operations in re

关 键 词： 环境规制 生猪养殖 空间布局 产业转移 空间计量模型

分 类 号： [F326.3]

领　　域： []