作　　者： ;

机构地区： 中山大学粤港澳发展研究院

出　　处： 《经济学》 2012年第2期 873-892,共20页

摘　　要： 基于全球贸易分析GTAP模型及相关地区关税校准,本文分析了《两岸经济合作架构协议》（ECFA）＂早期收获＂和＂全面实施＂两种降税安排对两岸三地的经贸影响。研究发现：短期内早期收获计划将对大陆的贸易余额和贸易条件产生负面冲击,但长期动态条件下将显著促进两岸贸易、经济增长和福利水平;ECFA全面实施的影响幅度大于早期收获计划;台湾地区的改善幅度大于大陆,香港地区作为两岸贸易中转港的地位显著减弱;ECFA对各产业影响存在差异。 Base on trade tariffs calibration,this paper utilizes GTAP to study ECFA impacts on economic growth,trade and industries of Mainland,Taiwan and Hong Kong in China.We find that in the short run＂Early Harvest＂has negative impacts on trade balance and terms of trade for Mainland,but in the long-term it should significantly promote trade,economic growth and welfare for both Mainland and Taiwan.The impact of＂Full Implementation＂is generally larger than Early Harvest,and the impact on Taiwan is larger than that on Mainland.Hong Kong＇s status as a transit port for cross-strait trade would be significantly weakened.The impacts on different industries are different.

关 键 词： ECFA 台湾地区 GTAP

分 类 号： [F757]

领　　域： []