作　　者： (吕炜）; (高帅雄）; (周潮）;

机构地区： 东北财经大学经济与社会发展研究院

出　　处： 《中国工业经济》 2017年第8期5-24,共20页

摘　　要： 2002年以来中国上游行业的价格水平大幅度波动,需求侧层面的外部冲击是引起上游行业价格波动的重要原因,那么,来自供给侧层面的因素又在上游行业的价格波动中起到何种作用呢?本文基于投入产出网络构建了包含多个生产部门在内的动态随机一般均衡模型。研究发现,上游行业内部存在较强的"价格自循环"效应,"价格自循环"效应起到了放大器的作用,使得上游行业的整体价格水平对冲击的反应更加敏感。此外,上游行业拥有较强的市场势力。较强的市场势力与"价格自循环"效应相互叠加,进一步放大了上游行业价格对外部冲击的敏感程度,造成上游行业价格大起大落。价格的大起大落容易扭曲资源配置并对经济产生一系列负面影响。因此,在供给侧结构性改革的背景下,政府通过清理过剩产能、市场退出等形式实现改革目标的同时,应当更加关注上游行业内部的市场势力变动,切实引入有效的竞争机制,防止上游行业市场势力重新增长,防止其与"价格自循环"效应重新叠加造成价格大幅波动,避免供给侧结构性改革成果遭到破坏。同时,在应对价格波动方面,政府也应注重对供给侧的调节,弱化"价格自循环"效应可能带来的不利影响。 The price of upstream industry has shown a dramatic fluctuation since 2002, and the external shocks from the demand side are essential causes of price fluctuation in upstream industries. However, what role does the supply side play in the price fluctuation？ This paper introduces input-output network into a muhi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and finds that the price self-circulation effect plays as an obvious role of amplifier in the upstream industry, which makes the overall price level of upstream industry more sensitive to the external shocks. At the same time, the upstream industry possesses a stronger market power. This market power and price self-circulation effect can be superimposed on each other to further enlarge the price sensitivity to external shocks, which can easily cause the wide price fluctuation in upstream industry. Price volatility can distort resource allocation and bring about a series of negative effects on the economy. Therefore, in the context of Structural Reform of the Supply Front, the government should pay more attention to the changes of market power and conduct effective competition mechanism to the upstream industry when dealing with excess capacity and market exit mechanism. At the same time, the government should prevent the regrowing market power of the upstream industry and interacting with the price self-circulation effect. In this way, the achievement of Structural Reform of the Supply Front may not be undermined. In addition, when dealing with the price fluctuations, the government should also pay attention to the supply side adjustment and weaken the adverse effects of the price self-circulation effect.

关 键 词： 价格自循环 投入产出网络 供给侧结构性改革 动态随机一般均衡模型