作　　者： (张治栋）; (司深深）; (李松鹤）;

机构地区： 安徽大学农村改革与经济社会发展研究院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处： 《生态经济》 2017年第9期91-95,共5页

摘　　要： 虽然国内学者对农业税废除促进农村工业发展这一结论深为其然,但鲜有深入研究政策效力的趋势波动,仅仅将其长期递减归结为时效因素,而对内在路径研究也莫衷一是,缺乏系统整合。通过对已有研究中作用机理的系统梳理,基于安徽省2000—2014年县域面板数据,运用面板数据回归对这一效应进行实证检验。结果表明,这一政策的增长效应和长期递减趋势与理论预期相符,但短期表现出波动趋势,在时效衰减说基础上提出政策交互效应说,用城镇化发展的外部性解释趋势差异,城镇化发展推动了城乡工业联动发展和非城镇化转移下的要素结构优化,在短期内表现为政策效应增强,进而根据上述结论提出相应政策建议。 The domestic scholars deeply believe such a conclusion that the abolition of agricultural tax can promote the development of rural industry, but there is few in-depth research on the trend of policy effectiveness. Long-term decreasing is only attributed to aging factors, and researching on the internal path also varies, lack of systematic integration. Based on the existing research on the mechanism and the county panel data of 2000-2014 in Anhui Province, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the effect by using the difference-in-differences model. The results show that the growth effect and long-term decline trend of this policy are in line with the theoretical expectations, but the short-term fluctuations are in the trend. On the basis of the time attenuation theory, the paper puts forward the policy effect interaction theory, then explain the differential trend with the externalities of urbanization. Urbanization drive industry linkage development between urban and rural areas and improve the elements structure optimization under the non-urbanization transfer, in the short term, the performance of that policy effect is enhanced. And then put forward the corresponding policy recommendations based on the above conclusions.

关 键 词： 农业税废除 农村工业 增长效应 趋势波动