作　　者： (冯剑锋）; (岳经纶）;

机构地区： 中山大学政治与公共事务管理学院,广东广州510275

出　　处： 《高等教育研究》 2017年第7期39-49,60,共12页

摘　　要： 对44个国家的面板数据进行分析后发现,尽管大学扩招对当期劳动参与率带来了负面影响,却有助于缓解人口转变过程中结构性失业带来的不利冲击,从长远来看,高校扩招对后期劳动参与率具有明显的提升作用。在老龄化程度较高的国家,提高高等教育入学率对抑制结构性失业的负面冲击更为明显;而对于老龄化程度较低的国家,高校扩招更有助于促进后期劳动参与率回升,从而有助于解决未来人口老龄化带来的潜在风险。我国进入老龄化社会以来,高校实行扩招政策在应对人口老龄化问题方面具有重要的战略意义。 Since the expansion of university enrollment, the employment problem of col- lege students has aroused widespread concern,it analyzes the influence of the university ex- pansion on employment from the perspectives of demographic change. The result from 44 countries shows that although the university expansion has negative impact on the current la- bor force participation rate, but it also help to alleviate the negative impact of structural un- employment. At the same time, the expansion of higher education will have a significant role in improving the later labor participation rate. In addition, the result from sample classifica- tion shows that： in the countries with a high degree of aging, the expansion of higher educa- tion is more obvious on alleviating the negative impact of structural unemployment; while in the countries with a low degree of aging, the expansion is more conducive to promoting the labor participation, which ultimately helps to address the potential risks of future population aging. Based on this analysis, it could conclude that since China entered into the aging socie- ty, the policy of enlarging enrollment in colleges is of great significance in dealing with the aging problem.

关 键 词： 高校扩张 人口老龄化 产业调整 劳动参与率