作　　者： (王林）; (彭谦益）;

机构地区： 重庆大学建设管理与房地产学院,重庆400045

出　　处： 《中国房地产》 2017年第21期20-29,共10页

摘　　要： 房地产业是国民经济的支柱性产业,商业地产作为房地产业的重要组成部分,具有与宏观经济类似的周期性波动特征。在考虑重庆市目前的统计现状及指标数据可得性的基础上选取2003-2016年与商业地产周期相关的14个统计指标的年度数据,运用SPSS16.0软件进行时序全局主成分分析,并绘制了重庆市商业地产周期波动的时序图。实证结果表明,在2003到2016年间,重庆市商业地产周期大致经历了3个完整的周期,周期平均长度为4个年度。在此基础上为宏观经济政策的制定和促进重庆市商业地产的健康良性发展提供建议。 Real estate is a pillar industry of national economy.Commercial real estate is animportant part of real estate industry,and has the characteristics of cyclical fluctuation similarto macro economy.Based on the current status of statistical data and the availability of indexdata in Chongqing,this paper chooses the annual data of14statistical indicators related to thecommercial real estate cycle from2003to2016,and uses SPSS16.0software to analyze the timeseries global principal component analysis and the time chart of Chongqing commercial real estatecycle fluctuation is drawn.The empirical results show that from2003to2016,the commercial realestate cycle of Chongqing has experienced three complete cycles with an average cycle length of fouryears.On this basis,this paper provides suggestions for the formulation of macroeconomic policiesand the healthy and healthy development of commercial real estate in Chongqing.

关 键 词： 商业地产 时序全局主成分分析法