作　　者： (郭健）; (李谷成）; (李欠男）;

机构地区： 华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北农村发展研究中心,湖北武汉430070

出　　处： 《湖南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》 2017年第4期44-50,共7页

摘　　要： 基于1998—2014年7种主要农作物的省级面板数据,通过构建双向固定效应模型,分析了农业劳动力成本上升对中国主要农作物种植结构的影响。结果表明:农业劳动力成本每上涨1倍,稻谷、小麦播种面积比例分别降低8.1%和8.0%,玉米、蔬菜、油料播种面积比例分别提高8.0%、6.3%和2.3%;农机对劳动力的替代提升了玉米和稻谷等易于机械种植品种的播种比例,农机总动力每增加1%,玉米和稻谷播种面积比例分别提高0.34%和0.17%;地区非农经济比例通过对农作物的产品替代来应对劳动力成本上升,其对蔬菜等高附加值经济园艺作物播种面积比例有显著正影响,对稻谷、玉米等粮食作物播种比例有显著负影响;农业劳动力成本上升还导致农作物种植结构有向分品种地区集聚的趋势。 Based on the provincial panel data of seven kinds of main crops from1998to2014,the effect of agriculturallabor cost increase on the planting structure of China's main crops was analyzed by constructing a two-way fixed effectmodel.The results showed that the proportion of rice and wheat sowing area decreased by8.1%and8.0%respectivelywhile the ratio of corn,vegetable and oil sowing area increased by8.0%,6.3%and2.3%respectively with the agriculturallabor cost increased one times.The element substitution of agricultural machine increased the proportion of corn and ricesowing area,which increased by0.34%and0.17%respectively with the total power of agricultural machinery increased1%.The proportion of non-agricultural economy in the region deal with the issue of labor cost increase by changing theplanting structure,which had positive effect on the proportion of sowing area of high value-added economic horticulturalcrops,while it had significant negative effects on the grain crops such as rice and maize.Besides,the increase inagricultural labor costs also led to the trend of agglomeration in different crops and regions.

关 键 词： 劳动力成本 要素替代 产品替代 农作物 种植结构