作　　者： (乔爱玲）; (孟翔燕）; (吴秋峰）;

机构地区： 东北农业大学工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处： 《价格月刊》 2017年第9期37-42,共6页

摘　　要： 为研究中国白条猪肉批发价格波动规律,首先,选用中国2009年11月25日~2016年11月25日的白条猪肉周批发价格数据分析了白条猪肉批发价格演化过程。然后,运用Eviews软件对数据进行平稳性检验,利用依赖于波动理论的时间趋势分解方法对白条猪肉批发价格进行波动规律分析。运用变异率绘制出我国白条猪肉批发价格波动程度变化曲线,根据波峰-波峰将波动曲线划分为7个大周期,研究显示7个周期的振幅除第2周期外均呈现强幅型,整体来说,周期振幅为强幅型、波动高度为中峰型、波动深度为负值,呈现古典型波动,以上研究结果说明我国白条猪肉批发价格变动剧烈、波动幅度较大并呈现一定的周期性。最后,提出了一些稳定白条猪肉批发价格的对策和建议。 In order to study the fluctuation rule of wholesale price of white pork carcass in China, this paper first analyzes the evolutionary process of wholesale price of white pork carcass by the data set on weekly wholesale price of white pork carcass in China from December 18th, 2009 to November 25th, 2016. Secondly, this paper takes smoothness test of the data by Eviews, and then fluctuation rule of wholesale price of white pork carcass is analyzed by time trend decomposition method based on fluctuation theory. Furthermore, the curve of fluctuation degree of wholesale price of white pork carcass in China is plotted by rate of variation. The whole period is divided into seven intervals by rule of peak to peak. The result shows that seven intervals emerge the strong-typed amplitude except the second one. Additionally, the whole results show strong-typed period-amplitude, mid-peak typed height fluctuation, negative fluctuation depth and classical fluctuation. All of the above re- sults show that the wholesale price of white pork carcass significantly fluctuates, and it has strong-typed fluctuation amplitude and apparent periodicity. Finally, this paper puts forward some policies and suggestions to stabilize the wholesale price of white pork carcass.

关 键 词： 白条猪肉批发价格 波动规律 时间趋势分解法 变异率