作　　者： (王磊）; (魏龙）;

机构地区： 武汉理工大学经济学院,430070

出　　处： 《国际贸易问题》 2017年第8期62-72,共11页

摘　　要： "低端锁定"是中国制造业嵌入全球价值链(Global Value Chinas,GVCs)后面临的主要困境。近年来发达国家制造业回流与更多新兴经济体的低端嵌入,又展现出GVCs的"挤出效应"。若"挤出效应"取代"低端锁定"成为主要风险,中国制造业存在与GVCs脱钩的可能。本文基于WIOD数据和KPWW方法,选取就业和工资的角度,从高端环节的技术创新能力和低端环节的工资成本优势分析中国制造业的竞争力所在。实证结果显示:低技术劳动力仍是中国制造业的主体,中高端人才规模扩张、质量改善,"低端锁定"尚未彻底解决;低技术劳动力成本优势不再,在相应环节出现"挤出效应"。本文提出短期发挥人口红利余热,中期成为区域价值链的技术制高点,长期重视人才培养的建议,以实现由"世界工厂"向"双环流枢纽"、"夹心层中心"的分工地位调整。 ＂Low-end lock＂is the main dilemma faced by China＇s manufacturing industry after embedding in GVCs（Global Value Chinas, GVCs）. In recent years, GVCs also show ＂Squeeze effect＂. If the ＂Squeeze Effect＂ replaces the＂low-end lock＂and becomes the main risk, it may mean that China＇s manufacturing industry will disconnect with the GVCs. Based on the WIOD data and KPWW method, this paper analyzes the competitiveness of China＇s manufacturing industry from the perspective of the technological innovation capability of the highend link and the labor cost advantage of the low-end link. The empirical results show that the scale of high-end talent has expanded and qualityhas improved in China＇s manufacturing industry. Evidence shows that ＂Low-end lock＂ has eased,but not yet completely resolved. Low-tech labor cost advantage is no longer stable. In order to realize the transition from＂world factory＂to＂double circulation hub＂ and ＂sandwich center＂, this paper suggests that China should take advantage of demographic dividend in short term, become the technology high ground of regional value chain in the medium term, andput emphasis on personnel training in the long term.

关 键 词： 低端锁定 挤出风险 就业质量 工资成本 竞争优势