作　　者： (马淑琴）; (邵宇佳）; (王彬苏）;

机构地区： 浙江工商大学经济学院,310018

出　　处： 《国际贸易问题》 2017年第8期51-61,共11页

摘　　要： 本文基于1995-2011年世界投入产出数据,以双边全要素生产率(TFP)为中间变量,研究了价值链贸易对经济周期联动性的影响,并结合中国的经验事实进行了探讨与分析。研究结果表明,价值链贸易确实会通过TFP来影响双边经济周期的联动性。价值链贸易一方面能够独立地影响双边TFP联动性,另一方面也能够调节双边贸易对双边TFP联动性的影响,最终传导至双边经济周期的联动。进一步研究表明,价值链贸易在行业内贸易中的作用更大。由中国的经验事实得出,中国的行业间贸易主导了同发展中国家的经济周期联动性,而行业内贸易则主导了同发达国家的经济周期联动性。这为中国制定经济共荣、贸易互补的协调性经济政策提供了若干依据。 This paper studies the effects of value-chain trade on business cycle synchronization through bilateral total factor productivity（TFP） from both the perspective of the world and China by using the WIOD database from 1995 to2011. The main findings are as follows： value-chain trade indeed influence the bilateral business cycle synchronization through TFP. On one hand, value-chain trade affects bilateral TFP co-movements independently; on the other hand, it moderates the impact of bilateral trade on bilateral TFP co-movements, and improves the bilateral business cycle synchronization ultimately. Further research shows that value-chain trade plays a more important role in intra-industry trade.For China, inter-industry trade dominants the business cycle co-movements with developing countries, while intra-industry trade leads business cycle synchronization with developed countries, which provides bases for China to make coordinated economic policy on economic prosperity and trade complementary.

关 键 词： 价值链贸易 联动 经济周期协同 行业内贸易 投入产出模型