作　　者： (任书华）; (梁娴）; (杜长慧）;

机构地区： 成都市疾病预防控制中心,四川成都610041

出　　处： 《疾病监测》 2017年第8期641-645,共5页

摘　　要： 目的分析成都市甲型H1N1流行性感冒的时空分布特征。方法利用传染病报告信息管理系统中2009年5月9日至12月31日成都市甲型H1N1流感数据以及相关流调报告资料,对疫情流行规律进行时空描述分析和空间自相关分析。结果早期甲型H1N1病例以输入为主,国外输入病例主要来自美国、新加坡、澳大利亚等,省外输入病例主要来自中国香港、广东省、上海市等。发病数呈中心城区(主城6区)、中层城区、外层城区逐渐递减趋势,其中主城6区累计发病数占总发病数的68.86%。成都市甲型H1N1流感在空间分布上呈正自相关(Moran's I=0.410,P=0.001),其中"高-高(H-H)"区域主要集中在主城6区,即青羊区(其局部自相关系数"I",I=1.195,P=0.001)、锦江区(I=0.773,P=0.003)、成华区(I=0.495,P=0.026)、金牛区(I=0.658,P=0.004)、高新区(I=0.842,P=0.001)、武侯区(I=0.530,P=0.004),"低-高(L-H)"区域位于中层城区的新都区(I=-0.650,P=0.029),其他区域的局部空间自相关差异无统计学意义。结论在甲型H1N1流感传播、聚集风险上,主城区高于中层城区,中层城区高于外层城区,因此在防控措施上应因地制宜,分别对不同层的城区给予不同的防控措施。 Objective To understand the spatial-temporal distribution of influenza A（ H1N1） pdm09 in Chengdu. Methods The spatial-temporal description and the spatial autocorrelation analysis were conducted by using the incidence data of influenza A（ H1N1） pdm09 from May 9,2009 to December 31 in Chengdu collected from Infectious Disease Reporting Information System and related epidemiological investigations. Results The early A（ H1N1） pdm09 cases were mainly imported ones,including the cases from the United States,Singapore and Australia,and the cases from Hong Kong,Guangdong and Shanghai. The incidence decreased gradually from the central urban area to the surrounding area,and the incidence in urban area accounted for 68. 86%. There was a positive spatial autocorrelation of the incidence of A（ H1N1） pdm09 in Chengdu（ Moran＇s I = 0. 410,P = 0. 001）. The high-high（ H-H） areas were mainly distributed in six districts of urban area,including Qingyang（ I = 1. 195,P = 0. 001）,Jinjiang（ I = 0. 773,P = 0. 003）,Chenghua（ I = 0. 495,P = 0. 026）,Jinniu（ I = 0. 658,P = 0. 004）,High-tech Zone（ I = 0. 842,P = 0. 001） and Wuhou（ I = 0. 530,P = 0. 004）,the low-high（ L-H） area was Xindu（ I =-0. 650,P = 0. 029）,located in the middle urban area. The differences in local spatial autocorrelation were not significant among the districts in central urban area of Chengdu. Conclusion The transmission risk of A（ H1N1） pdm09 was higher in central urban districts than in middle urban area,and higher in middle urban area than in outer area. It is necessary to take targeted measures for the prevention and control of influenza A（ H1N1） pdm09 in Chengdu.

关 键 词： 甲型 流感 空间自相关 时空分布特征