作　　者： (康伟）; (曹太鑫）; (杜蕾）;

机构地区： 哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处： 《中国软科学》 2017年第8期144-155,共12页

摘　　要： 工业化、城市化进程的加快在推动社会经济发展的同时,激化了资源与环境的深层次矛盾,在整体利益与局部利益、经济利益与环境利益等一系列矛盾交织的宏观背景下,邻避冲突已成为转型期社会的一个新风险源和城市治理热点问题。由于污染类事件呈现出的高风险、多因素、动态性等系统性特征,本文以文献分析、网络数据和调研数据为基础,提炼污染类邻避冲突事件发展影响因素,运用系统动力学方法构建SD模型并模拟事件的动态演化过程。通过对不同情景的仿真结果研究发现,民众对邻避设施的选址及社会舆论具有较强的敏感性,政府通过合理的利益补偿及加大信息公开程度能有效地控制邻避冲突程度。 While the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization has promoted the development of social economy, and also has intensified the deep contradiction between resources and environment. In the macro background of intertwined overall interests and local interests, economic benefits and environmental benefits of a series of contradictions, NIMBY conflict has become a new risk source and urban governance hotspot in transitional society. Because of the high risk, multi-factor and dynamic characteristics of pollution events, this paper is based on literature analysis, network data and research data, and abstracts the factors influencing the development of pollution-related conflict events, and uses the system dynamics method SD model to simulate the dynamic evolution of events. Through the simulation of different scenarios, people on the NIMBY facilities location and social public opinion have a strong sensitivity, the government through the interest compensation and information disclosure can effectively avoid conflict degree adjacent rational.

关 键 词： 污染类邻避冲突事件 动态演化 仿真 系统动力学