作　　者： (任皓）; (周绍杰）; (胡鞍钢）;

机构地区： 清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084

出　　处： 《中国软科学》 2017年第8期34-45,共12页

摘　　要： 知识与技术密集型产业已经成为世界经济增长的主要动力,本文发现在知识经济内部知识密集型服务业与高技术产业具有明显的协同增长效应,运用工具变量法,计算结果显示知识密集型服务业对于高技术产业具有高产出弹性。在考虑相互影响的情况下,运用EC3SLS方法,本文测算知识密集型服务业对于高技术产业的产出弹性为1.22。稳健性检验结果显示,低制造业结构、低收入水平的国家,知识密集型服务业对于高技术制造业产出弹性更高。本文认为,对于中等收入国家,发展知识密集型服务业有利于本国高技术产业的发展,进而有助于跨越中等收入陷阱。 With the transformation of global economic growth, knowledge and technology intensive industries have been a major and growing part of the global economy. In this paper, we found knowledge intensive service and high-tech industry have significantly synergistic growth effect. By using IV regression, we calculated that the output elasticity of knowledge intensive service to high-tech manufacturing is high. Taking interaction effect into consideration, we calculated that the output elasticity is 1.22% with EC3SLS regression. And robustness test resuhs showed that the output elasticity is higher in the low manufacturing structure and low-mid income countries. Based on the empirical results, we argued that the development of knowledge intensive service industries is conducive to the development of high-tech manufacturing in middle income countries, and thus helped to escape the middle income trap.

关 键 词： 知识密集型服务业 高技术产业 产出弹性 中等收入陷阱