作　　者： (丛晓男）; (王谋）;

机构地区： 中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所,北京100028

出　　处： 《中国软科学》 2017年第8期21-33,共13页

摘　　要： 在气候变暖作用下,北极航线开发再度成为全球关注的焦点。北极航线的大规模开发和使用对中国及全球经济均具有重要潜在影响,各国家或地区的受益程度构成了其应对战略的经济基础。作者改进了GTAP模型并自主开发了可计算一般均衡模拟系统,对北极东北航线的经济影响开展了模拟研究。结果显示,东北航线的使用促进了全球经济增长,但不同国家或地区的受益程度有所不同,包括中国在内的东亚地区、欧盟等成为最大受益方。根据东北航线的地理特征及其对各经济体的经济影响差异,辨识了东北航线开发中存在的主要利益集团及其所持观点,并据此提出了中国与各集团的合作思路。 Under the influence of global warming, Arctic sea routes have become a focus of the world. The large scale development and utilizationof Arctic sea routes may have significant potential influence on China and even the global economics, and the different benefit of each country or region leads to various coping strategies. The authors have built a Computable General Equilibrium model by improving the GTAP model, developed a simulation software, and made analysis on the economic effect of the Northeast Passage. The simulation shows that the Northeast Passage will improve the global economics and different economies benefit variously. East Asia which contains China, and European Union are the major beneficiaries. According to geographical features of the Northeast Passage and its influence on relevant economies, the authors have identified the major interest groups and their opinion towards the development of the passage, and made some advice for China to cooperate with them.

关 键 词： 北极航线 东北航线 可计算一般均衡 经济影响