作　　者： (段哲哲）; (周义程）; (黄昊）;

机构地区： 深圳大学城市治理研究院;台湾政治大学;苏州大学政治与公共管理学院;复旦大学发展研究院;复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院;

出　　处： 《理论与改革》 2017年第5期149-157,共9页

摘　　要： 在现代社会,决策问题日益呈现出高度复杂性和高度不确定特征,由此导致实证主义典范下的公共决策时常难以达到预期效果。而决策科学民主化运动则使公众参与决策成为常态。近些年,西方学界在复杂科学典范背景下提出的协同建模的理论与方法,提供了一种利益相关者参与决策的新路径。协同建模整合了决策会议和正式模型,涵盖了个人内在心智模式和群体成员间对话两个因素,涉及到社会层面、实务层面和语言层面等三个层面的活动,有助于通过理性对话来克服多样性悖论并促进社会学习,有助于通过正式模型模拟"what if"场景来处理不确定性问题,有助于通过以定量模式呈现定性结果的方式来达成共识。 In Modem society, decision-making problems are leads to the fact that public decision-making under the positivist increasingly highly complex and uncertain, which model is often difficult to achieve. Meanwhile, the movement of democratization of the decision-making science makes the decision-making with public participation become normal. In recent years, the theory and method of collaborative modeling proposed by Western scholars in the context of complex scientific paradigm provides a new path for stakeholders to participating in decision-making. Collaborative modeling integrates the methods of decision session （qualitative） and formal model, covering two factors of mental model of person and group member dialogue, involving the activities of three levels of society, practice and language, which is conducive to promoting social learning by overcoming the paradox of diversity through rational di- alogue, dealing with the uncertainty problem with the help of modelling the ＂what if＇ scenario, reaching consensus by presenting qualitative results in quantitative model.

关 键 词： 协同建模 复杂科学 典范 公众参与决策 系统动力学