作　　者： (王林元）;

机构地区： 中国建设银行,北京100000

出　　处： 《吉林金融研究》 2017年第8期1-8,共8页

摘　　要： 在我国经济发展方式转变的新形势下,有必要对经济集约化发展问题进行深入研究。论文基于经济增长理论,以中国过去六十多年经济数据为样本,划分为1952-1978、1979-1997、1998-2015年三个发展阶段,构建计量回归模型,测算经济增长的集约度,即全要素生产率(TFP)增长对经济增长的贡献度,研究资本积累及城镇化对我国经济增长的影响。运用实证研究法和经济增长余值分析法构建模型,通过二元线性回归,估计资本和劳动要素变量参数值,进而测算资本、劳动要素及全要素生产率增长对经济增长的贡献度。研究发现,过去六十多年,我国经济增长集约度还比较低,经济增长主要依靠资本和劳动投入的增加,资本积累和城镇化是中国持续高速经济增长的主导因素。而当前我国大量资本密集型产业出现产能过剩,人口老龄化致使大量劳动密集型产业人力成本上升,传统粗放式增长方式难以为继,亟需加快经济发展方式的集约化转变,努力实现技术进步和人力资本投资驱动的可持续发展。 Under the new situation of the change of the mode of economic development in China, it is necessary to make a thorough study on the problem of economic intensive development. Based on the theory of economic growth, this paper constructs an econometric model to measure the intensive degree of the economic growth in China. And also research the effect of the capital accumulation and urbanization on the China＇s economic growth. With the economic data since the year of 1952 as the sample, establish a three-stage-model which divides the time into 1952-1978, 1979-1997 and 1998-2015 three periods. Using empirical research method and residual value analysis method, this paper establishes the model to estimate the contribution to the economic growth of capital, labor and non-capital-labor-input factor through binary linear regression. The study found that the intensive degree of China＇s economic growth is relatively low over the past more than 60 years, in other words, economic growth mainly depends on the increase of capital and labor inputs. The dominant driving factors of Chinese sustained rapid economic growth are capital accumulation and urbanization. At present a large number of capital-intensive industries have excess capacity. At the same time, the population aging trend results in a large number of labor-intensive industries＇ labor costs rise. So the traditional extensive mode of growth is unsustainable. It is urgent to speed up the transformation from the extensive economic growth mode to an intensive one, which mainly depends on the technical progress and human capital investment.

关 键 词： 经济增长 集约化 资本积累 城镇化