作　　者： (李菲）; (王永光）; (王小桃）; (秦美欧）; (吴琼）; (易雪）; (林蓉）;

机构地区： 沈阳区域气候中心,辽宁沈阳110166

出　　处： 《气象与环境学报》 2017年第4期108-112,共5页

摘　　要： 本文利用第二代月动力延伸预测模式业务系统(Dynamic Extended Range Forecast,DERF 2.0)提供的1983—2015年位势高度场资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及东北地区气温实况场,从DERF 2.0产品降尺度解释应用角度出发,建立了一套完整的东北地区月气温预测模型的方案,对东北地区11月气温进行了降尺度解释应用,建立了基于DERF 2.0产品东北地区11月气温的预测模型。结果表明:通过对基于DERF 2.0产品建立的东北地区11月气温预测模型的检验分析可知,建立的模型对东北地区月气温具有较高的预报技巧(Ps评分较高),对月气温预测具有较明显的改进,可在实际气候预测业务中应用,并对模型的稳定性问题进行了探讨,逐步改进完善预测模型。 Based on the geopotential height field products from 1983 to 2015 provided by the DERF （ Dynamic Ex-tended Range Forecast） operational system version 2. 0,NCEP/NCAR （ National Centers for Environmental Pre-diction/National Center for Atmospheric Research） reanalysis data,and monthly mean temperature data in North-east China,a scheme for monthly-temperature prediction was established by using the downscaling interpretation and application of the DERF v2. 0 products. A temperature prediction model in November in Northeast China was established based on the above methods. The results show that this model has a good forecasting performance,with a high Ps score and can be used in the climate forecasting operation. Meanwhile,the model′s stability for forecas-ting the temperature in November is discussed,and some solutions to improve this model are provided.

关 键 词： 月动力延伸预报 气温 解释应用 评分