作　　者： (张云）; (李宝伟）; (葛文欣）;

机构地区： 南开大学经济学院经济系 中国特色社会主义建设协同创新中心

出　　处： 《政治经济学评论》 2017年第5期117-132,共16页

摘　　要： 本文以明斯基的内生金融不稳定假说作为理论内核,将工业企业资产负债率作为企业融资类型指标,并利用我国31个省份2006年1月至2014年12月的月度数据,用指标构建法得到了我国的金融稳定状况指数,进而将其与企业融资类型、各省生产总值建立面板向量自回归模型进行分析。实证结果表明,金融不稳定的加剧对各省生产总值长期存在负向影响;各省生产总值的发展对金融不稳定有减轻作用;资产负债率的增加即企业投机融资和庞氏融资的增加会加剧金融不稳定;同时资产负债率的增加对各省生产总值影响为负。因此,中国省份面板数据实证分析证明了明斯基金融不稳定假说的正确性。为保持我国金融稳定性和经济可持续增长,应适当出台政策抑制企业融资向庞氏融资的转变。 Based on Minsky＇s financial instability theory, this paper studies theinfluence of the type of corporate finance on financial instability and economic growth, we regard asset liability ratio of industrial enterprises as an indicator of corporate finan-we regard asset liability ratio of industrial enterprises as an indicator of corporate finan- cing, using monthly data from 2016.1-2014.12 of 31 provinces. The index of China＇sfinancial stability is obtained by the index method. The panel VAR model is established with variables above, corporate financing and actual GDP, and the impulse responseand variance decomposition are carried out. The results showed that increased financial instability had a negative impact on GDP for a long time~ GDP would reduced financialinstability in a certain period of time; an increase in the asset liability ratio will exacer-bate financial instability. So we proved that Minsky＇s financial instability theory isright. In order to maintain the stability of the financial and economic sustainablegrowth, we should appropriately restrain the transformation of corporate finance toPonzi＇s financing.

关 键 词： 明斯基理论 金融不稳定 面板向量自回归