作　　者： (姚成胜）; (钱双双）; (李政通）; (白彩全）;

机构地区： 南昌大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330031

出　　处： 《中国农业资源与区划》 2017年第8期8-15,共8页

摘　　要： [目的]以黑龙江省为例,首先对其农业碳排放总量进行测度,再研究农业碳排放同经济增长、科技投入之间的关系。[方法]利用1996~2013年的统计数据,从4个方面估算了黑龙江省农业碳排放量,进而采用自回归滞后分布模型(ARDL模型)对农业碳排放量、经济增长以及科技投入之间的关系进行实证分析。[结果]农业碳排放量、GDP增长和科技投入存在长期稳定关系,但长期来讲农业碳排放量增长速率远大于GDP增长速率;GDP增长对农业碳排放总量存在显著的正向影响,且长期影响程度远大于短期;科技投入对农业碳排放具有抑制作用且存在滞后效应,其中长期的抑制作用为12.4%,短期为3.9%,当滞后期为两年时,抑制作用尤为显著。[结论]经济增长会促进黑龙江省农业碳排放的增加,而科技投入则能对农业碳排放产生有效地抑制作用,因而黑龙江省可以通过增加农业科技投入来降低农业碳排放。 Agriculture is an important carbon emission sector. The relationship among agricultural carbon emission, science and technology input, and economic growth has attracted great attentions. Heilongjiang as a major agricultural province in China its annual total agricultural carbon emission is increasing continuously in recent 20 years. The paper studies the effect of economic growth and science and technology input on agriculture carbon emission in Heilongjiang province. Using statistics data from 1996 to 2013 and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model （ARDL model） , total agricultural carbon emissions were estimated from 4 aspects, and then the relationships among agricultural carbon emissions, science and technology input, and economic growth were empirically analyzed. The resuits showed that： there was a longterm equilibrium relationship among agricultural carbon emission, GDP growth, and science and technology input. However, the increasing rate of GDP was much higher than that of agricultural carbon emissions; GDP growth had a positive influence on total agricultural carbon emission; science and technology input had negative and lag effect on agricultural carbon emission. The long - term and short - term negative effects on agricultural carbon emissions were 12.4% and 3.9% , respectively. Economic growth promoted the increase of agriculture carbon emission in Heilongjiang province, while the science and technology input had an inverse effect. Thus, it was reliable for Heilongjiang to decrease its agriculture emission by increasing the input of science and technology.

关 键 词： 农业碳排放 科技投入 经济增长 模型 黑龙江