作　　者： (凯丽比努尔）; (海米提）; (麦麦提吐尔逊）;

机构地区： 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院

出　　处： 《水土保持研究》 2017年第5期247-251,258,共6页

摘　　要： 基于喀什地区4个气象站点1957—2013年的最高气温、最低气温、月平均气温、相对湿度、风速、日照时数以及降水量数据,采用Penman-Monteith模型、一元回归分析、累积距平和Mann-Kendall非线性突变检验法,分析其年潜在蒸散量的时间序列变化及其影响因子。结果表明:近57a来,喀什和巴楚的潜在蒸散量呈减少趋势,倾向率分别为-7.53mm/10a,-7.47mm/10a;塔什库尔干与莎车的潜在蒸散量呈现增加趋势,倾向率分别为8.27mm/10a,6.25mm/10a;在四季变化中,夏季最多,春、秋季次之,冬季最少;喀什地区潜在蒸散量突变点存在明显差异:喀什年潜在蒸散量突变点为1981年,巴楚的为1962年,塔什库尔干的为1974年和1983年,莎车年潜在蒸散量突变点为1961年、1965年、1968年和1978年;喀什地区年蒸散量最主要受风速和日照时数的影响。 Based on maximum temperature,minimum temperature,monthly mean temperature,relative humidity,wind speed,sunshine duration and rainfall data collected from four meteorological stations during1957—2013in Kashi area,we used Penman-Monteith model,regression analysis,accumulative anomaly and Mann-Kendall nonlinear mutation test method to analyze annual potential evapotranspiration dynamic change and its influence factor of time series.The results show that:(1)in the past 57 years,the potential evapotranspiration in Kashi and Bachu showed the decreasing trend and its tendency rates were-7.53mm/decade,-7.47mm/decade,potential evapotranspiration of Tashikuergan and Shache increased with the tendency rates of 8.27mm/decade and6.25mm/decade;(2)during the four seasons,the dynamic change tendency rate was higher in summer than spring and autumn,and lowest occurred in winter;(3)there was a significant difference among the potential evapotranspiration mutation points in Kashi area;the annual potential evapotranspiration mutation point of Kashi occurred in 1981,1962 for Bachu,1974 and 1983for Tashikuergan,annual potential evapotranspiration mutation points of Shache occurred in 1961,1965,1968 and 1978;(4)the wind speed and sunshine hours have the effect on the annual evapotranspiration in Kashi area.

关 键 词： 潜在蒸散量 模型 影响因子 喀什地区