作　　者： (李文新）; (巫峡）; (刘赐麟）;

机构地区： 中国人民银行重庆营业管理部,重庆401147

出　　处： 《当代金融研究》 2017年第2期101-110,共10页

摘　　要： 本文以央行支付系统重庆处理中心资金流数据为基础,结合重庆GDP数据,对央行支付系统资金流与重庆地区GDP关系进行实证研究。为了更准确和全面地分析两者之间的关系,本文引入迟滞叠加矩阵对央行支付系统资金流数据进行优化处理,建立了央行支付系统资金流与重庆地区GDP关系的优化模型。研究表明:一是央行支付系统资金流与重庆GDP之间存在较为明显的正相关性。二是央行支付系统资金流对重庆GDP的影响具有迟滞叠加性。三是利用央行支付系统资金流与重庆GDP关系模型,可以对本地区GDP进行较为准确的预测。由此提出三方面政策建议:一是重视央行支付系统资金流数据与地区经济指标关系模型的研究,为地区经济发展趋势提供前瞻性参考。二是建立央行支付系统资金流行业分类机制,为充分利用央行支付系统数据创造良好条件。三是利用央行支付系统资金流数据为货币政策的制定和效果提供参考。 On the basis of big data of Chongqing City Clearing Processing Center(CCPC)and Chongqing'sGDP,this paper presents a deep and empirical analysis of the relationship between fund flow of China NationalAdvanced Payment System(CNAPS)and the GDP of Chongqing.For analyzing more exactly and comprehensively,a matrix with the characteristics of hysteresis and superposition is creatively introduced.The results show that:Firstly,there is asignificant positive correlation between the fund flow of CNAPS and Chongqing's GDP.Secondly,the impactof the fund flow of CNAPS on Chongqing's GDP has hysteresis and superposition.Thirdly,a accurate forecast on theGDP of Chongqing can be made with the established model of fund flow of CNAPS and Chongqing's GDP.Therefore,thefollowing policy recommendations are put forward:Firstly,for prospective reference idea of the regional economic trend,more attentions should be paid to the research,which focuses on the relationship between fund flow of CNAPS andregional economic indicators.Secondly,industrial classification mechanism should be established in order to makefull use of the big data of CNAPS.Thirdly,it can provide references for the formulating and testing effect of monetarypolicy according to the fund flow data from CNAPS.

关 键 词： 央行支付系统 资金流 迟滞叠加性 实证研究 预测