作　　者： (王祖纲）;

机构地区： 中国石油集团经济技术研究院

出　　处： 《国际石油经济》 2017年第8期50-57,共8页

摘　　要： 采用中国石油经济技术研究院开发车用能源结构优化模型对2020-2050年中国车用能源结构进行优化,分析中国清洁能源汽车的发展路线。短期内天然气汽车、纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车等技术成熟度高、经济性好的车型易被市场接受;中期来看,纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车的比例逐渐扩大,燃料电池汽车开始规模化推广,替代燃料汽车的比例开始下降;长期来看,纯电动汽车和燃料电池汽车将在清洁能源汽车中占有绝对优势,其他车型将逐渐萎缩。清洁能源汽车将对中国油气行业的发展产生深远影响,传统油气公司应密切跟踪清洁能源汽车的发展态势,加强"能源与汽车"的对话;借助"一带一路"发展契机,促进国内外相关区域清洁能源供应网络的建设与完善;加强技术研发,探索石油利用的新途径。 The paper optimizes China vehicle energy structure in 2020-2050 and analyzes its development route with the vehicle energy structure model developed by CNPC Economics Technology Research Institute（ETRI） as follows. In short-term, the market will easily accept those natural gas vehicles, electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles because of their high maturity and sound economy. For the medium view, the proportion of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will increasingly rise, the fuel cell vehicle will be popularized, and the ratio of alternative fuel vehicle will decline. In long-term, the electric vehicle and fuel cell vehicle will be the most of clean energy vehicles,other will gradually shrink The clean energy vehicle will have a profound impact on the development of China＇s oil and gas industry. Traditional oil companies should closely follow the development trend of clean energy vehicles, strengthen the ＂energy and car＂ dialogue, promote the clean energy supply network construction with the Belt and Road initiative and improve RD to explore new ways of petroleum.

关 键 词： 清洁能源汽车 技术路线 技术经济 油气行业