作　　者： (刘强）; (王恰）;

机构地区： 中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所

出　　处： 《国际石油经济》 2017年第8期1-14,共14页

摘　　要： 伴随着人口向城镇聚集和工业化进程的基本结束,中国能源需求的峰值已经到来,未来能源需求的增长点在于高端制造业和生活消费。能源不再是中国经济发展的瓶颈,供给和需求之间可基本实现平衡,这有利于形成能源供应商之间的竞争,有助于推动中国能源体制改革。技术进步将催生根本性的能源革命,应建立鼓励竞争与创新的能源市场机制。建议适度放松依托国内资源来保障能源供给的指导思想,依托"一带一路"倡议加强能源国际合作,以全球资源视角优化和保障中国能源供给,以国际化来调整化石能源供给结构,推动能源供给革命;优化有关标准,推动智慧能源发展,实现普遍节能,促进能源消费革命。2050年,中国能源需求总量将下降到30亿吨标准煤,并基本稳定下来。在供给侧改革与经济增长路径变化的共同作用下,未来30多年中国能源供需结构将出现较大变化。 With the rapid advancement of the population gathering in cities and towns the basically end of industrialization process, coming of the peak of China＇s energy demand, the growth of future energy demand lies in high-end manufacturing and living consumption. Energy is no longer a bottleneck in China＇s economic development and there could be an almost balance between supply and demand, which is conducive to the formation of competition among energy suppliers, and help to facilitate reform of China＇s energy system. Technological progress will lead to a fundamental energy revolution, an energy market mechanism that encourages competition and innovation. The paper suggests moderately relaxing the guiding ideology of relying on domestic resources to ensure national energy supply, adjusting the supply structure of fossil fuels by internationalization, promoting the energy supply revolution; optimizing the relevant standards, improving the development of smart energy in order to realize the universal energy saving and promote the energy consumption revolution. In 2050, China＇s total energy demand will fall to 3 billion tons of standard coal and remain stable. Under the combination of supply-side reform and the change of economic growth approach, China＇s energy supply and demand structure will change significantly over the next 30 years.

关 键 词： 能源革命 能源体制改革 结构优化 煤炭 原油 天然气 电力 需求 供应