作　　者： (沈强）; (周红）; (张东杰）;

机构地区： 厦门大学建筑与土木工程学院,福建厦门361005

出　　处： 《工程管理学报》 2017年第4期148-153,共6页

摘　　要： 通过构建VAR模型,运用脉冲响应、方差分解和JJ协整检验,从全寿命期的角度分析了房地产限购政策执行及取消、货币供应量、住房贷款利率、房地产开发投资率对厦门房地产市场的动态影响,并为限购重启提供建议与借鉴。结果显示:房屋限购在短期并不能有效抑制房价上涨,长期能较好地给厦门房地产市场降温;限购取消在短期并不能给房地产市场升温,但长期将导致房价报复性上涨;房地产市场普遍存在"适应性预期",厦门房价调控关键在于调节消费者和投资者的心理预期。 This article builds VAR model and uses impulse response,variance decomposition and JJ co-integration test to analyze the dynamic influence of implementation and cancellation of home buying restriction policy,money supply,housing loan interest rate,real estate development investment rate on Xiamen real estate market from the point of view of life cycle,and provide suggestions and reference to restart home buying restriction policy. The results show that：home buying restriction cannot effectively curb rising housing prices in short term,but in long term can cool well the real estate market in Xiamen;cancellation of home buying restriction in short term cannot warm the real estate market,but in long term will lead to retaliatory price increases;real estate market commonly exists ＂Adaptive Expectations＂,so the key to Xiamen housing price control is to adjust the psychological expectations of consumers and investors.

关 键 词： 限购政策 向量自回归模型 脉冲响应 全生命期 限购重启