作　　者： (龙晓君）; (郑健松）; (李小建）;

机构地区： 广东财经大学地理与旅游学院,广东广州510320 河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心,河南开封475001 河南财经政法大学城乡协调发展河南省协同创新中心,河南郑州450046

出　　处： 《经济经纬》 2017年第5期128-134,共7页

摘　　要： 在"全面二孩"政策实施背景下,运用队列要素人口预测算法,对人口参数尤其是总和生产率和生育模式进行假设,通过PADIS-INT系统实现人口预测,而后结合预测的劳动参与率,预测未来劳动力供给情况。发现劳动力规模在2015年左右开始缩减,尤其在2025年以后快速下降。预计在2030—2035年间45~64岁中老年劳动力比重超过25~44岁中壮年劳动力比重,劳动力内部年龄结构老化趋势日益明显。"全面二孩"的实施将在一定程度上缓解未来劳动力供给缩减的趋势,放缓劳动力结构老年化速度。 With the implementation of＂Two-Child＂Policy,this paper combines an assumption of demographic parameter,especially the total fertility rate and fertility model,with projected labor participation rate,adopts cohort component population prediction methods and PADIS-INT system in an effort to forecast the future trends in labor supply. The result shows that the scale of the labor force begin to shrink in about 2015 and goes down fast after 2025. It is predicted that the proportion of middle and old age labor aging from 45 to64 will be larger than that of labor aging from 25 to 44 between the years of 2030 and 2035. The aging trend of the internal structure of labor force is becoming increasingly obvious. The implementation of the Universal＂Two-child＂Policy will to some extent slow down the shrinking trend in future labor supply and reduce the speed of aging in labor force structure.

关 键 词： 队列要素人口预测 劳动参与率 劳动力结构 人口老龄化