作　　者： (陈忠良）; (马雷）;

机构地区： 安徽省地质调查院,合肥230001

出　　处： 《华东地质》 2017年第3期210-217,共8页

摘　　要： 针对以离散钻孔为主要数据源建立的第四系三维地质结构模型,采用地统计学方法以置信度指数定量评估三维地质结构模型的不确定性。通过分析目标地层顶面趋势,获取其地质复杂度信息;利用半方差函数模型分析目标地层顶面的空间自相关性,获取其数据精度信息;结合专家经验,以置信度综合评估模型的不确定性。以运漕幅第四系三维地质结构模型为例,分别绘制早—中更新世青弋江组(Qp1-2 qy)与中—晚更新世大桥镇组(Qp2-3 d)顶面高程与置信度指数图。结果表明,钻孔位置和运漕幅右下角钻孔密集处的置信度指数较高,图幅边缘及地层缺失处的置信度指数偏低。置信度指数与钻孔数据精度呈正相关,与地质复杂度呈负相关。置信度指数可为以离散钻孔为主要数据源建立的第四系三维地质结构模型的不确定性分析提供量化工具。 The Confidence Index of geostatistic method is used to quantitatively evaluate the uncertainty of Quaternary geological structural model that is established mainly based on discrete boreholes. The geological complexity information was obtained using trend analysis of the top surface of the target strata, and the data accuracy information was obtained according to the spatial autocorrelation of the top surface of the target stratum with semi-variance function analysis. Expert experience was also consid- ered for comprehensively assessing the uncertainty in the form of confidence coefficient. The three-dimensional （3D） Quaternary geological structural model of the Yuncao area was taken as an example, and the elevation and Confidence Index maps of the top surfaces of Qp^1-2qy and Qp2-3d were plotted in this study. The results show that the Confidence Index in the areas near boreholes or with dense boreholes is obviously high, and low in the areas near map edge or in stratum absence, The Confidence Index is posi- tively correlated with borehole data accuracy, and is negatively with geological complexity. The Confidence Index provides a tool for quantitatively assessing the uncertainty of 3D Quaternary geologieal structural model established with discrete boreholes.

关 键 词： 三维地质模型 第四系 不确定性 地统计学 置信度指数