作　　者： (徐磊）; (董捷）; (张俊峰）; (李璐）;

机构地区： 华中农业大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处： 《资源开发与市场》 2017年第9期1031-1035,共5页

摘　　要： 从系统论视角出发,利用系统动力学(SD)方法分析农业碳排放系统的反馈机理,构建湖北省农业碳排放系统动态仿真模型,选取产业就业政策、农业投资和农业结构调整政策作为可控参数变量,通过改变参数值和组合方式设置了12种情景进行政策模拟,并基于农业碳排放效率最佳的原则,运用超效率数据包络分析模型(DEA)对预测结果进行了评价和政策优化。研究结果表明:单独政策调控不能有效提高碳排放效率,三个政策共同调节后的效率优于单独政策和双政策调节,多政策共同调节方案是减少碳排放效率最佳的模式。该研究为分析农业碳排放系统动力机制提供了有力的理论依据,为我国科学制定低碳农业政策提供了决策参考。 From the perspective of system theory, the causality and feedback relationships among carbon emissions system were analyzed base on system dynamic. Then system dynamic simulation model of agricultural carbon emissions of Hubei Province was established in this paper. Taking em- ployment policy, agricultural investment and agricultural investment and adjustment of the agricultural structure as controllable variable parameters, by changing parameter values and combinations to design 12 scenarios for simulating and forecasting, the predicted results were analyzed and optimized using input- oriented supper- efficiency DEA modeling, based on the optimum selective rules of agricultural carbon emissions efficiency. The results of researching demonstrated that, single policy regulation failed to improve the efficiency of carbon emission effectively. The average efficiency pro- duced by three policies was better than that generated by single policy or dual policy adjustment. The most efficient pattern of carbon emission was the scheme adjusted by multi - policy together. The research results provided a theoretical basis for the study of dynamic mechanism of agricultural carbon emission system and gave a decision- making reference for making scientific low- carbon agricultural policy.

关 键 词： 农业碳排放 系统动力学 仿真 政策模拟